By: Sam Chandan, PhD (economist)
You can borrow at 3.9% right now in housing – this still hasn’t made a big impact, which proves that jobs is still the most important key to economic stability.
GDP was up 2.8% in 4th qtr 2011
Just because our economy seems to be getting better because of various indexes increasing like GDP, without jobs increasing as well, that isn’t coming out of a recession.
AT corporate profits are up in all quarters of 2011, and are up higher than in 2007, height of market.
Small business optimism index is at about 92% in 2011 compared to a height of 100 in 2007.
We are 48 months past the recession now and we still haven’t gotten to a point of zero in terms of the number of jobs we had at the start of the recession. The graph made it look like we still have at least a couple more years.
Prime office and retail locations in prime markets, the best of the best, is experience a fantastic recovery. There is pent up capital for these assets, which is driving up prices.
In 2005 real estate was 19% of all economic activity in Florida and 15% nationally.
Jobs Lost and Jobs Regained by Industry in the Nation – Education is up, Hospitality is flat, Public is down, Retail is up, Professional is up, and Finance is up.
Jobs Lost and Jobs Regained in Florida by Industry – Education up, Hospitality flat, Public down.
Florida had 3rd largest growth in population last year. Cross border immigration was a large part of that growth. Texas and California was #1 and 2.
Apartment Pricing Trends – All Market avg cap rates are 6.7% and Cardinal Market cap rates on average are about 4.9%! These are for assets $1m or higher.